The Next Best Actress Oscar Winner Has Already Been Decided When the Norminees Were Announced

The envelope hasn't been opened. Campaigns are still in full swing. Yet I, the Authenticity Expert, am prepared to tell you exactly who will win the 2024 Best Actress Oscar.

This isn't some speculation, woo science or Hollywood agent gossip. It's a prediction grounded in the Authenticity Quill™, a system developed by my company Authenticity Quotient that has correctly identified Oscar winners with 100% accuracy for the past 20 years—specifically for the nine (9) winners who portraited a real person. This is an extension of the deep evidence-based research work that our team has done over the past couple of years, as we turn our focus towards another "Authenticity Mystery" after the break-through we made in cracking the code in Authentic Leadership Traits ("Auth-Q").

Who Is Behind Authenticity Quill and How Legit It Is?

I'm Ken Chan, the Authenticity Expert and founder of Authenticity Quotient, a research institute devoted to the science of Authenticity and Narcissism.  Prior to that, I was instrumental as the Launch Partner of a $200 million venture capital fund in Los Angeles with numerous A-list celebrities as investors and collaborators to amplify global brands. In aggregate I invested and advised over $12 Billion of household media brands in the past 15 years. 

Across all these experiences, one truth stood out: Authenticity is the cornerstone of success. Whether it's a product, a leader, or an Oscar-winning performance, authenticity wins buy-in from audiences—and, crucially, from Oscar voters.

The Authenticity Quill™: Decoding Oscar Success

The Authenticity Quill™ evaluates performances based on three proprietary elements of both a high-probability winning script and best actress. When perfectly balanced, these traits create performances that Academy voters cannot resist:

1. Self Emotional Awareness (SEA) 

ISA goes beyond surface-level emotion. It evaluates whether a character demonstrates genuine self-awareness of their emotional journey. It’s not about crying on cue—it’s about conveying deep personal insight into one’s motivations, flaws, and transformations.

2. External Adversity Resilience (EAR)

EAR measures how a character faces external adversity—not just internal struggles. This includes tangible obstacles, power imbalances, or systemic threats that force the character to confront their reality while staying grounded in self-awareness.

3. Relational Agile Transformation (RAT)

RAT assesses how a character navigates shifting relationships and societal contexts while maintaining a coherent sense of self. It’s not about playing different roles—it’s about showing evolution across relational landscapes without compromising authenticity.

🧬 Grounded in Scientific Research: Not "Woo" Science

The Authenticity Quill™ isn’t built on guesswork. It expands upon the seminal 2000 paper by Michael Kernis and Brian Goldman, who defined authenticity as a multi-dimensional construct comprising:

1. Self-Awareness: Recognizing one’s motives, emotions, and strengths.  → Leadership Auth-Q: Empathetic Team Awareness  →  Self-Emotional Awareness (SEA)

2. Objective Self-Evaluation: Honest self-assessment without defensiveness. Leadership Auth-Q: Objective Total-Evaluation)  → External Adversity Resilience (EAR)

3. Relational Transparency: Expressing oneself authentically in relationships (Leadership Auth-Q: Relational Agility)  →  Relational Agile Transformation (RAT)

As you can see, after the breakthrough in Leadership, our attention turned to another area in which authenticity is paramount, acting, and we once again developed our proprietary psychological principles to performance evaluation, further validating the power of Unifying Theory of Human Authenticity (UTHA)^TM

🔥 Why All Three Traits Matter: The Perfect Triangle of Authenticity

No we don't stop there as the "maybe you are just lucky to get 9 out of 9".  The true power of the Authenticity Quill™ lies in its ability to explain both Oscar wins and losses with remarkable consistency - we in fact back tested all 15 qualified "samples" and paired up the "nominated but lost" best actress candidates with an elegant "category matching" face-off and here's what we found:

• 🔍 Every single Best Actress winner portraying a real person in the past 20 years has excelled in all three dimensions: SEA, EAR, and RAT.

• 🔍 Conversely, every losing nominee—no matter how acclaimed—fell short in at least one trait.

WIthin the three traits, there is one in particular that has a stronger predictability - the X-Factor so to speak - but this patent-pending AI model is only reserved for our paying clients as our research expands to fictional characters and other categories.  

One note before we walk you through our scientific analysis - the reason why we started with actress and does not have a strong leaning of Authenticity Quill applicability to the Best Actor race (yet). is because unlike Best Actress where the Oscar Voters are expecting an Authentic Performance, the Actor tends to be tied to the Best Picture and/or as the narrative vehicle as opposed to character studies (e.g. Oppenheimer, The English Patient anyone?)

🎬 The 2024 Best Actress Race: Applying the Framework

Let's apply the Authenticity Quill™ to this year's Best Actress nominees. Here’s how the contenders stack up:

🟡 Emma Stone - Poor Things

As Bella Baxter, Stone delivers a bold, emotionally rich performance as a woman with an infant's mind who matures over time. However, Emma still retained a fairly standard distance with the people around her (i.e. ART is lacking)  —her evolution feels intellectual rather than emotionally transformational.
Authenticity Score: 2/3

🟡 Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon

Gladstone’s portrayal of Mollie Burkhart is dignified and quietly devastating. Yet, similar to Emma, limited agility in her social capital distance with others —her role is defined more by enduring trauma than adaptive transformation.
Authenticity Score: 2/3

🟢 Demi Moore - The Substance

As Elisabeth Sparkle, Moore embodies an aging star desperate for relevance, navigating multiple identities while facing existential collapse. Her performance demonstrates SEA, EAR, and RAT in perfect balance. We will double-click with much greater depth. 
Authenticity Score: 3/3 ✅

🟢 Cynthia Erivo - Wicked

Erivo’s Elphaba transitions from idealistic outcast to defiant icon, hitting all three pillars—SEA, EAR, and RAT. Cynthia is in our view the only credible threat in this race and we will show you how to explore each trait with greater precision in future post. 
Authenticity Score: 3/3 ✅ 

🟡 Mikey Madison - Anora

Madison’s portrayal of a sex worker thrust into sudden wealth showcases emotional vulnerability (SEA) and resilience (EAR) but did she turned into someone else or another social-economical entity— no, she simply reacts more than adapts.
Authenticity Score: 2/3

🏆 The Authenticity Frontrunners: Demi Moore vs. Cynthia Erivo

Only Demi Moore (The Substance) and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) have all three traits.  Both of them are fictional characters.  Does it mean that our framework would not be applicable?

The answer - maybe.  Except in this year's race, both actresses' transformations, and their personal stories are even more intriguing than often their on-screen characters.  In other words, it is the year when we are flipping our lens to example if the character, the digital self, screen is a reflection of their performers, the physical self.  

In other words, it is a meta-version of the Authenticity Quilt. 

🗓 Where's the Proof? Follow Us. 

In our next few posts, we'll reveal:

1. How the Authenticity Framework™ predicted every Best Actress winner for 20 years. We will show you all the evidence,  including a perfect score for all 9 actresses and their "lesser" nominees in other years as a comparison.

2. Is it Finally Demi Moore’s Year or Would Cynthia's Elbaba be the Mean Green Witch That Could?  We will offer in depth analysis of each of these traits, and reveal what the Authenticity Quilt wrote when the 5 norminees' name were announced last month. 

3. What Does it Mean to the Future for Script-Writing and Character Selection? We believe that Authenticity Quotient, just like "Emotional Quotient" before it, is at the cuisp of a "This is It" breakthrough moment - and our team at Authenticity Quotient is here to unlock it with you all. 

🔍  Subscribe now so you won't be last to find out when the real prediction comes out next week for the full breakdown.

💬 What do you think of the Authenticity Quill™? Which performance do you believe shows the strongest authentic triangulation? Share your thoughts below.